Estimating the date of the third Bitcoin price peak

bitcoin graph

Taking a look at Bitcoin price dynamics from the beginning of 2013 to the present day we get a good chance to predict the approximate period of the third price peak.

More specifically, the graph of the first peak will help us do that, as it seems to be quite similar to the graph of the second one; the only difference is in the scale.

bitcoin graph 2014

First, we need to fix the period of the second bottom. We see that after the first peak (2) the price dropped from $238 to $68 (4). After the second peak (6), the price dropped from $1151 to $294 in October 2014. Since then, it hasn’t been any worse, which means October 2014 is exactly when the second bottom (8) occurred.

Then first gradual drop (3) lasted for 3 months, and the second one (7) lasted for 10 months. Given that the period between the first and the second peaks (5) lasted for 8 months, it is possible to predict that the third peak occurs in appr. 10 x 8/3 = 26 months after the second peak, i.e., in April 2016.

The second graph may help us predict the price of the third peak. It’s quite simple: during the first and the second peak Bitcoin price made up approximately x10 of the pre-peak price. Just compare (1)/(2) and (4)/(6). As we’ve proven that (8) was the second bottom with BTC costing a little less than $300, next year the price may rise up to $400-500 with the third peak reaching up to $4000-5000 per Bitcoin.

So, if you base yourself upon the above said, do not expect Bitcoin price to drop below 300 in the coming months, as already in spring 2016 every BTC you have in your wallet may cost up to $5k. Awesome, isn’t it?

See the current Bitcoin exchange rate to 21 world currencies on BTCXE

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